Currencies

China’s economic growth will stagnate, at best, rather than revive. Lower valuations of Chinese equities are justified, and share prices have more downside. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar.

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.

In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.

There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.

The Hamas attack against Israel, timed almost 50 years to the day after a similar surprise attack on Yom Kippur of 1973, has evoked parallels with the 1970s. Parallels not only with Middle Eastern geopolitics then and now, but also with inflation, economics, and financial markets. In this report, we explain what went wrong in the 1970s and whether the mistakes will be repeated. Plus: the sharp sell-offs in some Latin American currencies are reaching a potential turning-point.

Yields remain the force dominating the evolution of markets. A peak in yields would help European assets rebound, but the war in the Middle East could push higher energy prices, with negative consequences for Europe.