Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, valuations, interest rate differentials, and higher oil prices favor the NOK over the EUR. Higher oil prices, especially when they reflect tightening…
The euro has weakened sharply since mid-July as US growth continues to outperform that of the Eurozone. Is a new bear market afoot for the common currency?
The Polish central bank delivered a larger-than-anticipated 75 basis point rate cut on Wednesday – slashing the policy rate to 6%, versus expectations of 6.5%. The aggressive move marks the first rate cut following a 11-…
Earlier this year, our Emerging Markets strategists highlighted that the divergence between Latin American and Emerging Asian currencies was unsustainable. While Latam currencies – including the COP, MXN, BRL, PEN, and CLP…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the counter-trend bounce in the dollar will continue. Factually, the trend in the dollar has depended on both global growth dynamics and the relative health…
In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.
The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest in nearly 16 years vis-à-vis the US dollar on Thursday following the release of Chinese trade data. Although the pace of export contraction slowed from 14.5% to 8.8% y/y in August (and…
If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as…
Recent Eurozone economic data indicate that restrictive monetary policy and the global manufacturing downturn are weighing down on the region’s economy. In particular, new orders at German factories plunged by 11.7% m/m…