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Currencies

Currencies And Commodities: Hedging Upside Risks

In this report, we highlight why there are upside risks to Brent crude oil and copper prices going into 2024, with the production side expected to drive deficits in these markets. To take advantage of a potential rally, we suggest basket plays for hedging this outcome.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Commodity & Energy Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Market Opportunities In Central Europe

Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Hedging The Oil Risk: Sell EUR/NOK
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, valuations, interest rate differentials, and higher oil prices favor the NOK over the EUR. Higher oil prices, especially when they reflect tightening supply, act as a risk to the euro. This…
Daily Insights
Euro Update

The euro has weakened sharply since mid-July as US growth continues to outperform that of the Eurozone. Is a new bear market afoot for the common currency?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Pro-Growth Policy Hurts The Polish Zloty
The Polish central bank delivered a larger-than-anticipated 75 basis point rate cut on Wednesday – slashing the policy rate to 6%, versus expectations of 6.5%. The aggressive move marks the first rate cut following a 11-month-long pause after the NBP lifted…
Daily Insights
Reconvergence
Earlier this year, our Emerging Markets strategists highlighted that the divergence between Latin American and Emerging Asian currencies was unsustainable. While Latam currencies – including the COP, MXN, BRL, PEN, and CLP – all strengthened against the US…
Daily Insights
The Dollar And Global Growth
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the counter-trend bounce in the dollar will continue. Factually, the trend in the dollar has depended on both global growth dynamics and the relative health of the US economy. From higher…
Daily Insights
The Most Important Charts For The Next Dollar Move

In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Contracting Exports Weigh On China's Renminbi
The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest in nearly 16 years vis-à-vis the US dollar on Thursday following the release of Chinese trade data. Although the pace of export contraction slowed from 14.5% to 8.8% y/y in August (and was slightly better than anticipations…
Daily Insights
Global Growth: Failing Engines

If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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