According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy services, most indications of Japanese inflation are pointing to upside surprises. This will boost interest-rate differentials in…
In this special report, we discuss whether the economic conditions necessary for a stronger yen (and higher JGB yields) will materialize over the next 12-to-18 months.
The above chart illustrates the BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator, which is made up of 17 series grouped into four asset class subcomponents: currencies, commodities, equities, and rates/fixed-income. The purpose of the…
Japanese real GDP grew at an annualized pace of 6% year-on-year in Q2. Reading the tea leaves from the release, public investment rose by 5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while residential investment jumped by a whopping 7.7%.…
Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.
China’s CPI and PPI inflation release for July indicates that deflationary pressures dominate the domestic economy. After remaining unchanged in June, consumer prices fell by 0.3% y/y. Meanwhile, the 4.4% y/y drop in…
The Mexican peso is the best performing major currency so far this year, gaining 14% vis-à-vis the greenback over this period. Even during the latest bout of dollar strength since mid-July, MXN has weakened by the least…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should stay overweight low-beta assets. Geopolitical risk is likely to stay elevated in Asia Pacific in the coming months. Mainland China faces debt-…