China has generated 41 percent of the world’s economic growth through the past ten years, al-most double the 22 percent contribution from the US. Now that the Chinese growth engine is failing, we explain why it is arithmetically…
Although the RMB has cheapened, macro conditions are not yet favorable for the Chinese currency. We expect the RMB to decline by at least another 5% in the next six months. A weak currency and subdued economic growth lead us to…
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange Strategy services, the British pound is overbought in the near-term and is at risk of a pullback on easing rate expectations, but this will represent a…
Time is running out on the Bank of England’s tightening cycle. UK economic growth is flirting with recession, unemployment is rising, house prices are contracting and inflation is decelerating. Markets are overestimating the eventual…
The Norwegian krone’s fortunes have recently reversed. It has been the best performing G10 currency since the end of May. This comes after a period of pronounced weakness during which it was the only G10 currency to…
August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?
Ever since the bottom below 0.96, the euro has staged a powerful rally. At 1.1, the euro is up 14.6% from its lows. The key question going forward is if investors should chase the rally, or fade strength in the common currency…
In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months.
Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.