The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time…
The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic…
History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, regional equity allocation, and EUR/USD. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of…
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service recently featured currency valuation models developed by our Foreign Exchange Strategy service. According to these models, the US dollar is extremely overvalued and thus vulnerable…
The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US…
In Section I, we audit the market’s “soft landing” narrative in response to a meaningful challenge to our cautious stance from recent financial market developments. We acknowledge that US economic growth was stronger in the first…
Australia’s June monthly CPI release shows inflationary pressures continue to moderate. Headline CPI inflation receded to 5.4% y/y -- in line with expectations – following a downwardly revised 5.5% y/y in May. To the…