Our European Investment strategists believe Switzerland is no longer a tactical haven and recommend underweighting CHF and Swiss equities in favor of Swiss bonds. The country retains strong structural fundamentals: High productivity…
Our Foreign Exchange strategists recommend strategic investors sell the dollar on strength, while tactical investors position for a near-term bounce. The key risk for the dollar today is a potential balance-of-payments crisis.…
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued,…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists remain underweight US equities and the dollar, as fiscal policy overtakes tariffs as the key market driver. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” may avoid worst-case scenarios, but rising US yields are…
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
The most recent Brazilian data surprised positively, but underlying economic troubles will spoil the party for the country’s financial markets. Wholesale inflation came in at -0.49% in May relative to last month, while the…
Global currency markets have entered a new era. This implies that the framework for analyzing exchange rates must also change. We introduce a new framework for analyzing EM currencies and classify them into…
This Insight looks at the implications of the RBNZ’s rate cut on New Zealand assets.