In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
Since the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) released its latest monetary policy minutes on June 27th, the Brazilian real has depreciated for three days in a row. Will the BRL resume its strengthening trajectory, or is the currency set…
The combination of a global manufacturing recession and tight/tightening policy is raising a red flag for global non-TMT stocks. In China, households are entering a liquidity trap, and deflationary pressures are heightening.…
There have been big downside surprises to inflation over the last few weeks. Today, the May monthly print of Australian inflation (covers 67% of all items), came in at 5.6%, versus 6.8% the previous month. This followed a…
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended an underweight stance for Indonesian equities in EM portfolios. The team is also bearish on the rupiah. An unprecedented trade surplus recently gave Indonesia…
The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy’s Reflation Confirming Indicator has been gapping down, signaling a material rebound in the broad trade-weighted US dollar. The broad trade-weighted US dollar is a counter-cyclical currency…
Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?
The Japanese yen is typically a counter-cyclical currency. As shown in the chart above, the correlation between global stock prices and the yen is usually negative. However, over the past year, the yen’s correlation with…