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Currencies

Risky Asset Prices, A Looming Recession, And The Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen is typically a counter-cyclical currency. As shown in the chart above, the correlation between global stock prices and the yen is usually negative. However, over the past year, the yen’s correlation with risky asset prices has shifted…
Daily Insights
Taiwanese Export Orders Underscore Persisting Manufacturing Downturn
Taiwanese export orders continue to signal that global manufacturing conditions remain weak. Orders declined by -17.6% y/y in May – albeit not as bad as the -21.3% y/y drop anticipated. The product breakdown reveals that all major categories experienced…
Daily Insights
Upgrading Japanese Stocks To Neutral
Japanese equities have been outperforming their global peers in recent months. Their 8.5% rally so far in Q2 exceeds the MSCI’s All Country World Index’s 5.6% gain over this period. Japan has not experienced the same inflationary overshoot plaguing most…
Daily Insights
China: Flirting With Deflation

China is facing a risk of deflation. Marginal interest rate cuts and targeted stimulus will be insufficient to boost China’s growth given the current deflationary mindset and the danger is that the economy may be entering a liquidity trap. Deflation is bullish for government bonds, but negative for equity prices. Chinese share prices will continue to decline.

China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
The ECB And BoJ Diverge: Implications For Markets

In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance is growing more unsustainable.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The ECB And BoJ Diverge: Implications For Markets

In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance is growing more unsustainable.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Singapore NODX: A Pessimistic Signal For Global Manufacturing
Singapore’s exports have historically acted as a good gauge for the health of the global economy. As a small open economy that is extremely exposed to fluctuations in the Asian and global manufacturing cycles, Singapore’s exports – particularly of electronics…
Daily Insights
BoJ: From Policy Divergence To Policy Convergence?
The Japanese yen was the worst performing major currency on Friday. The weakness followed news that the BoJ kept its policy rate untouched at -0.1% – as widely expected – and did not make any changes to its yield curve control program. While the BoJ statement…
Daily Insights
Europe’s Second Half Outlook

The Eurozone just experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. For the remainder of the year, can growth pick up or will the ECB decimate activity?

European Investment Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Will The Fed Hike By Another 50 bps?

This Strategy Insight discusses the bond market and currency implications of the Fed’s “hawkish pause”.

US Bond Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift

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