The South African rand is among the worst performing major global currencies since the DXY peaked on September 27 (behind only the Argentine peso, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira). Given that the ZAR is a high-beta currency,…
Recent Canadian data releases have raised concerns that the Bank of Canada may abandon the conditional pause it first telegraphed following its last rate increase on January 25 in favor of more policy tightening. Headline CPI…
After a powerful 40% rally from the March 2020 lows, AUD/JPY peaked in September 2022 and has been consolidating those gains in bearish trading pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Although the cross is up 4.5% from the March…
As expected, the Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25bps to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive rise. Notably the updated projections show a significant improvement in the economic outlook. The upwards growth…
The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.
Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long…
The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.
There is a 50:50 chance of experiencing a major deflationary shock in the next two years, and an even greater likelihood on a longer timeframe. The good news is that several assets provide a good insurance against this risk, and that…
The Norwegian central bank’s 25bps policy rate hike on Thursday was in line with consensus expectations. The lack of a decisive peak in headline CPI inflation – which has been gyrating in the 5.9-7.5% range since mid-…
As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.