There are several widespread market narratives regarding US inflation, the Fed’s policy, global manufacturing/trade and China’s recovery that we disagree with. In this report, we explain our reasoning and where it puts us in terms of…
No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…
Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in…
In this week’s review, we look at recent data and its impact on currency markets.
Is there a lot of cash on the sidelines ready to be deployed? Would the US recession not be bearish for the US dollar and help EM like it did in the early 2000s? Why can the US investment playbook of the past 15-25 years not be used…
Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…
High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.