Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower…
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
It is a big mistake to think that rate cuts or lower bond yields will ease credit conditions. Quite the contrary. After an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, the first rate cuts always coincide with much tighter credit…
CAD/NOK tends to trade in perfect harmony with the DXY, but a divergence has emerged of late. For one, the selloff in the Norwegian krone versus the Canadian dollar has not been associated with a similar rise in the DXY. The…
US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
This week’s report looks at the banking crisis within the context of shrinking dollar liquidity and implication for FX markets.
The odds of achieving a goldilocks scenario in the US where inflation drops amidst robust growth are low. If US bank woes do not escalate, the Fed will continue hiking amid a contraction in US corporate profits and global trade. The…
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.