The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish /…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that on a long-term basis, the pound is an attractive currency, but the near-term outlook is challenging. The long-term appeal of the GBP rests on three…
The UK economy is more resilient than was feared last year. While this will not help UK stocks, the Footsie’s long term prospects are appealing.
In this report, we look at data releases over the last month and implications for currency markets.
The strength in the euro versus the yen since May 2020 can be divided into two phases. During the first phase, from May 2020 to June 2021, the ebbing of the worst of the pandemic and the re-opening of the global economy boosted…
The combination of collapsing energy inflation and cooling wage inflation means that euro area core inflation will slump later this year. We discuss the consequences.
There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. The main purpose of government policy is now managing downside risks to the economy in both the short and long term. The priority for the central government is…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy & Foreign Exchange Strategy services conclude that for the next one-to-three months, European data could continue to underwhelm US variables, which will weigh on the euro.…
NOK is the worst performing major currency year-to-date, down more than 6% against the dollar and 5% against the euro. That is on top of a nearly 10% drop in 2022. Notably, as a major oil producer, and increasingly a natural gas…