Since 1970, the track record of US housing recessions as the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for economic recessions is a perfect four out of four: 1974; 1980; 1990; and 2007. If this perfect track record continues, the current US housing…
The EUR/SEK has been on a strong upward trend, appreciating 13% since its 2021 lows. However, its bull run is coming to an end. According to BCA’s European Investment Strategy team, this cross is now expensive and short-…
From a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a bounce. In this report, we review various indicators to gauge the magnitude and duration of this rally. We also recommend two new trades: sell the gold/silver ratio at 90 and EUR/…
The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback.
Investor sentiment on China and EM has become bullish. Meanwhile, the reflation plays have begun fraying on the edges. Cracks always appear first in the most sensitive reflation plays and then spread to the core. The narratives of…
After declining by 11% between late-September and February 1, the DXY index has since gained 2%. Notably, this improvement in the dollar’s performance coincides with positive US economic data surprises over the past two…
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.
The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest…
In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.