G10 commodity currencies have generally underperformed their peers recently. Since the beginning of December, the NOK and CAD have weakened slightly versus the dollar. Similarly, the NZD’s and AUD’s gains have trailed…
In EM ex-China, growth will continue decelerating. Some economies will experience an outright recession, while most will have a growth recession. Nearly every single economy will experience a cyclical drop in inflation (with the…
We remain bullish the yen, despite the BoJ maintaining yield curve control. In this report, we outline a few reasons for this stance.
We remain bullish the yen, despite the BoJ maintaining yield curve control. In this report, we outline a few reasons for this stance.
In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak.…
While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.
The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus:…
Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.
How to play China's reopening? What are the dichotomies in the performance of China's plays in financial markets? Why has the Chinese central bank tightened liquidity since October and what has been the impact on local rates and the…