In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.
The pandemic gave older Americans and Brits a massive carrot and stick to retire early. The carrot being a surge in wealth, the stick being a risk to health. In other major economies, the carrots and sticks were smaller or non-…
The Chinese Renminbi recently made a sharp U-turn. Year-to-date weakness has given way to a 4.9% appreciation versus the USD since the end of October. This rally occurred against the backdrop of broad-based US dollar depreciation…
Over the past week, the South African rand was a key underperformer in the currency space. Despite broad-based dollar weakness, USD/ZAR ended the weak 2.4% higher. Heightened domestic political uncertainty triggered the South…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, there are four fundamental reasons to position for higher energy prices that will support the Canadian dollar. The US is becoming the marginal supplier of…
Commodity currencies have been rather resilient, despite the broad rise in the dollar this year. In our view, we are about to experience a big rotation in commodity currency market performance at the crosses, from NZD, to CAD and…
Recession is not yet fully priced in, so markets have further to fall next year. But watch for a buying opportunity in the second half.
The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…