According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the dollar, the Swiss franc, the yen – but also the Norwegian krone –are likely to outperform in the next recession. The broad trade-…
In this report, we look at the possibility of a dollar decline during any pending recession. In our view, the evidence is mixed. We are probably in one of the most anticipated recessions in recent history, and the dollar has risen a…
Excess job vacancies in the US and UK reflect a labour market that cannot efficiently match unemployed workers with vacant jobs. This is because excess job vacancies reflect the shortage of labour supply in the 50 plus age cohort,…
After declining 9% in the first ten months of the year, CHF/USD has rallied 5% so far in November amid broad-based dollar weakness. More generally, on a trade-weighted basis, the CHF has performed relatively well in 2022,…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remains short Bitcoin from an entry price of $63,267 and reiterate their long-term target of $5,000. The team agrees with Larry Summers that the downfall of FTX …
The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global…
The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.
Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (annualized decline of 1.2%), following 1.1% q/q growth in Q2 (annualized 4.6%) and disappointing expectations of a lower yet still positive growth rate. However…
In this report, we identify the Norwegian krone as a currency that could outperform especially at the crosses, irrespective of the broad dollar trend.