The TWD’s surge reflects a regime shift in global capital flows that supports EM Asia government bonds. Alongside other Asian currencies, the TWD has rallied sharply against the USD since late last week. While the first wave of…
Mexico will be one of the biggest winners of the global trade war, creating a structural tailwind for its assets. Mexican risk assets and the peso are uniquely positioned to outperform while EM assets suffer as global growth slumps.…
The Bank of Japan’s dovish hold does not contradict BCA’s underweight JGBs and long JPY recommendations. The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for a second meeting, but slashed its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025 and…
This week’s report looks at Japan, with the recent BoJ meeting. While a trade war has injected uncertainty into the Japanese economy, our conviction remains high that JGBs will underperform other government bond markets, and the yen…
MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.
MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.
Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.
Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks…
The European economies are facing a major deflationary shock. We recommend that investors stay long a basket of Central European (CE3) domestic bonds. They should also upgrade CE3 bonds and stocks in their respective EM portfolios.