Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary GIS Projection For The EUR/USD We went long the euro early last week, as EUR/USD hit our buy limit price of $0.99. Despite a near cut-off of…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host the monthly Counterpoint Webcast on Thursday, September 22 (9:00 AM EDT, 2:00 PM BST). In this Webcast, I will discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for all the major asset classes…
The DXY has fallen for the past four consecutive trading days, sliding 1.7% since last Tuesday’s close. The move has coincided with a hawkish outcome from last week’s ECB meeting. Does this mark the beginning of a…
Interest rate differentials and soaring oil prices created potent headwinds for the Japanese currency this year. It is the worst performing G10 currency so far in 2022 – down nearly 18% versus the greenback. Although this…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become…
Next week, on September 7-8, is the BCA New York Conference, the first in-person version since 2019. I look forward to seeing many of you there, and if you haven’t already booked your place, you still can! (a virtual version is also…
Executive Summary The US dollar has become expensive, but it is not unusual for currencies to overshoot or undershoot their fair value. Valuation is not an effective market timing tool. In the US, high interest rates and a strong…
Following a brief reprieve earlier in the month, the South African rand is once again depreciating against the US dollar. Indeed, domestic headwinds are gathering and pointing to further weakness for the South African currency…