Executive Summary Accelerating wages will make core consumer inflation sticky in the US. In addition, inflation is a lagging variable and is still well above the Fed’s target. These dynamics imply that the Fed will not make a…
The signal from Asian currencies is consistent with trends within US equities. The ADXY – a trade-weighted index of emerging Asia’s most actively traded currencies vis-à-vis the USD – has collapsed below…
Highlights We now recommend that investors maintain a neutral stance towards stocks versus bonds in a global multi-asset portfolio. We also recommend that investors increase their allocation to government bonds within a global fixed…
Executive Summary There has never been a modern era recession or sharp slowdown in which the oil price did not collapse. In a recession, the massive destruction of oil demand always overwhelms a tight supply. Across the last six…
Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…
The primary macroeconomic problem the world currently faces is containing rising inflation, especially the kind that is supply-side driven. This problem has become particularly acute in recent months since both equity and bond…
Executive Summary Biden Can Take Risks With Russia President Biden will make a last-ditch effort to mitigate Democratic losses in the midterm elections and the effect will be still-high policy uncertainty and erratic US…
Executive Summary Structural Tailwinds For The Franc Volatility in FX markets is likely to remain elevated, as witnessed by the reaction of a full circle of central bank meetings this week.Policy convergence remains a good bet for…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Higher Real Yields Have Weighed On Equity Valuations I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi last week.…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, cryptocurrencies will rally strongly once the Nasdaq reaches a near-term bottom, which in turn will depend on a peak in long bond yields. The turmoil across financial…