Executive Summary Was FAANGM A Bubble? US inflation has become broad-based, and the labor market is very tight. Wages are a lagging variable, and they will be rising rapidly in the coming months, even as the economy slows…
Executive Summary Economic growth is now a casualty, and not a driver, of monetary policy choices. Inflation is dictating where central banks are taking interest rates. Our baseline view remains that core US inflation will…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host a Webcast on Monday, June 27 to explain the recent market turmoil and how to navigate it through the second half of 2022. Please mark the date, and I do hope you can join. Executive…
Executive Summary ECB & Inflation: Whatever It Takes? Inflation is the European Central Bank’s single focus. This single-mindedness heightens the risks to Euro Area growth, especially because wider peripheral…
Executive Summary Is Relative Inflation Peaking In The US? The dollar has likely peaked in the near term. An unwinding of speculative bets, based on structurally higher inflation in the US, is the key driver (Feature Chart…
Executive Summary Singapore stocks are at risk as an impending contraction in global trade will hurt this very open economy and its markets. The country’s foreign reserves are already shrinking as the balance of payments has…
Executive Summary The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is flawed. This Holy Grail of financial economics assumes that investors are a homogenous bunch with identical investment horizons, when the reality is that investors have a wide…
After a brief period of stability earlier this year, the Turkish lira has resumed its downtrend. The culprit behind this weakness is dovish monetary policy amid extreme inflationary pressures. Headline CPI inflation accelerated…
AUD/JPY has strengthened to a fresh multi-year high. As a key commodity producer, the Australian economy is extremely sensitive to the global economic cycle – particularly Chinese economic conditions. Meanwhile, the JPY is…