After a resilient first quarter, the South African rand experienced a sharp late-April selloff that brought it back down near late-2021 lows. However, the currency has been appreciating over the past week, recouping some of the…
Executive Summary Villains Still Lurking European assets and the euro already discount a significant worsening of Europe’s economic outlook. If the global economic situation were to stabilize, then European assets…
Japanese headline inflation increased from 1.2% y/y to 2.5% y/y in April. Similarly, core CPI inflation jumped from 0.8% y/y to 2.1% y/y. The April acceleration in consumer prices mostly reflects the fading effect of cheaper…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary EUR/JPY And The DXY: Unsustainable Gap Three interrelated themes are likely to play out by the end of 2022 – peak Fed hawkishness,…
Next Thursday May 26, we will hold the BCA Debate – High Inflation: Here To Stay,Or Soon In The Rear-View Mirror? – a Webcast in which I will debate my colleague, Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist, Bob Ryan on the…
After breaking below 1.05 last week, EUR/USD has recently been strengthening. Interestingly, this recovery is occurring amid heightened geopolitical tensions and growth concerns. The odds of an EU embargo on Russian oil have…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Likes Volatility Uncertainty about Fed policy has supercharged volatility in bond markets, and correspondingly, USD demand (Feature…
Executive Summary The surge in food prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine will drive EM headline inflation higher, given more of individuals' incomes in these economies are spent on food. Economies in the…