Executive Summary The Fed, Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia all hiked rates last week. The BoE, however, signaled a note of caution on future UK growth, given soaring energy prices and plunging consumer and business…
Executive Summary Ingredients For A Policy Mistake The hawks on the European Central Bank Governing Council have become vocal about a July rate hike. Such a move would be a policy mistake because European growth is weak,…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will be presenting a webcast titled ‘The 5 Big Mispricings In The Markets Right Now, And How To Profit From Them’. I do hope you can join. Executive Summary Just as the railway…
Strong domestic growth and sky-high oil prices have supported the rally in Colombian equities and the currency this year. However, a business cycle slowdown, an uncertain outlook for oil prices, and rising political risk will…
Executive Summary A True Bond Bear Market, USD-Hedged Or Unhedged The US dollar has appreciated in 2022, most notably against the euro and Japanese yen. The rally has been more muted against the currencies of major US…
The DXY has returned 7.8% so far this year, making the US dollar the best performing currency within the G10 universe. While commodity currencies such as the AUD, CAD, BRL and MXN have been under less pressure, a vicious…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service there is no clear case that the dollar suffers from US sanctions. Foreigners hold 26% of outstanding treasuries. Of this 26%, defense allies hold about 36%.…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…
Executive Summary Using the real yield on inflation protected bonds as a gauge of the long-term real interest rate is possibly the biggest mistake in finance. The ultra-low real yield on inflation protected bonds captures nothing more…