Executive Summary Allies Still Have Faith In USD  The Biden administration’s use of sanctions has prompted market speculation about the longevity of the dollar. Yet the DXY has hit 100 and could break out, in the…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Dear Client, In lieu of our weekly report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Tuesday with my colleague Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist, on the implications of…

Executive Summary After having overspent on goods ex-autos over the past two years and experiencing contracting incomes in real terms, US and European households will reduce their purchases of goods ex-autos. Risks to global growth…

Executive Summary In this first of a regular series of ‘no holds barred’ conversations with a concerned client we tackle the hot topic of inflation. Month-on-month US core inflation has already peaked, 12-month US core…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The Currency And Interest Rates: On A Collision Course?  The dip in the Swedish krona has priced in a recession in the domestic economy. If a…

Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US…

Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out  Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…

Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…

Executive Summary Onshore Equity Market Outflow Pressures Remain, At Least In The Near Term  China’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell in the first three months of 2022. The reduction was the largest quarterly fall…