According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, most central banks continue to dial up their hawkish rhetoric, led by the Fed. This is putting upward pressure on the dollar. The key data releases the…
Executive Summary The Dollar Has Broken Above Overhead Resistance Most central banks continue to dial up their hawkish rhetoric, led by the Fed. This is putting upward pressure on the dollar (Feature Chart). The big…
Executive Summary To understand the economy and the market we must think of them as non-linear systems which experience sudden phase-shifts. The pandemic introduced phase-shifts in our lives, which led to phase-shifts in our goods…
Executive Summary Long Small Cap Energy Versus Large Cap President Biden has not received a boost in opinion polls from the Ukraine war. If he has not by now then it is increasingly unlikely that he will do so. Yet Biden…
Our Foreign Exchange strategists recently looked at the dollar’s performance during Fed rate hike cycles. They found that the dollar has tended to decline 3-to-6 months after the Fed starts hiking interest rates. This has…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth It is still possible that equities can outperform bonds over the next 12 months, but the…
Executive Summary The Dollar And The Yield Curve The dollar has tended to decline 3-to-6 months after the Fed starts hiking interest rates. This has been true since the mid-1990s. Beyond that timeframe, the path of the…
The Japanese yen has weakened considerably over the past month: it is down more than 6% so far in March and USD/JPY closed at a six-year high of 123.9 on Monday. BoJ dovishness is behind yen weakness. On Monday, the central bank…