The South African rand has been strengthening over the past four months and is up 11% vis-à-vis the US dollar so far this year. Historically, the rand tends to move in lockstep with Emerging Market ex-TMT stocks and acts…
Executive Summary Petrocurrencies Have Lagged Terms Of Trade Petrocurrencies have lagged the surge in crude prices. This has been specific to the currency space since energy stocks have been in an epic bull market.Both cyclical and…
Due to travel commitments, there will be no Counterpoint report next week. Instead, we will send you a timely update and analysis of the Ukraine Crisis written by my colleague Matt Gertken, BCA Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Executive…
Executive Summary Ebbing Stagflation Fear Will Prompt Rerating European inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. Core CPI will reach between 2.8% and 3.2% by year-end before receding. The combination of…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the key call for currencies is whether the Fed delivers more or less hikes than is currently priced by markets. Over the long term, bond flows tend to be the…
Executive Summary The Market Has Priced An Aggressive Path For US Rate Hikes The Federal Reserve has joined other G10 central banks in increasing interest rates this week. However, this has been well priced by both the…
Executive Summary Higher Prices Expected Global oil supply will move lower for a few months, until shipping can be re-routed and re-priced in response to sanctions against Russian oil producers and refiners. In the…
Executive Summary For the Fed, maintaining its credibility with a long sequence of rate hikes that does not crash the economy, real estate market, and stock market is akin to the ‘Hail Mary’ move of (American) football.…
Executive Summary Winners And Losers Combining Russia and Ukraine: Taken together, Russia and Ukraine account for a small fraction of global trade. However, Russia is a key player in the global energy and metals markets,…