Executive Summary Stronger Capex Than Last Decade  The fog of war continues, but the worst potential outcome for the market—a freeze of Russian energy exports to Europe—has been avoided. Energy inflation is…

Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…

Special Report

Highlights The buildup of excessive household debt in Canada over the past two decades has occurred because of outsized demand for housing, not because of the impact of constrained housing supply on house prices. Outsized demand for…

Special Report

Executive Summary From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi  The geopolitical “big picture” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the deepening of the Russo-Chinese strategic partnership. While Russia’s economic and…

Special Report

Executive Summary EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist  Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a defense partner of the US and its allies. It is not likely to attack NATO members, which share a mutual defense treaty…

Executive Summary Lots Of Pent-Up Demand  The yen is unlikely to meaningfully appreciate until global bond yields stabilize. That said, very cheap valuations and a large net short position provide ample ammunition for an…

Executive Summary The ultimate inflation anchor is unit labor costs. If relative price shocks cause employees to demand higher wages from their employers, and if they are granted wage increases above and beyond their productivity…

Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact  The Ukraine crisis is escalating as predicted. We maintain our odds: 65% limited incursion, 10% full-scale invasion, 25% diplomatic de-escalation.…

Executive Summary Bull Markets In Malaysian Stocks Are Fully Dependent On Profit Growth  The conditions for a major rally/outperformance in Malaysian equities are absent. Profits have been the primary driver of Malaysian…