Highlights Financial markets have returned to 'risk on' in late April, after becoming overly gloomy on the growth, political and policy outlooks in recent months. There are also some worrying signs in our global forward-…
Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…
Investors are being forced into riskier asset classes by the TINA effect, but the gaping macro disequilibria makes it difficult for investors to see how we move back to equilibrium in a benign way. Monetary policy on its own is…
Chinese housing construction does not look excessive relative to the size of its rapidly growing urban population. On average, China's new urban construction has been about 500 units per 1000 new urban citizens in the past 10 years,…
Near-term, global yields will remain depressed, but the structural forces suppressing yields should abate and even reverse in the long-run. Slower potential GDP growth - and lower commodity prices - will eventually shift from…
This month's Special Report reviews the main factors driving the "lower for longer" bond yield view. A key finding is that the demographically-driven portion of the expansion in world capital spending has come to a virtual standstill…