Highlights Prediction 1: A major financial downturn will trigger the next major economic downturn, and not the other way round. Prediction 2: The straw that will break the back of a fragile financial system will be the global long…

Special Report

Highlights In an environment where both interest rates and inflation are low but rising at a time of stretched equity valuations, what can investors do to enhance risk-adjusted portfolio returns? In this report, we investigate the…

Special Report

Dear Client, I am travelling in Europe this week visiting clients. Instead of our Weekly Report, we are sending you a Special Report written by my colleague Xiaoli Tang of BCA's Global Asset Allocation. The report examines three…

Highlights The global economic mini-cycle is set to weaken while the euro is set to grind higher. Upgrade Telecoms to overweight. Also overweight Healthcare and Airlines. Underweight Banks, Basic Materials and Energy. Overweight…

Highlights The euro is cheap. To cease being cheap, EUR/USD needs to approach 1.35. Euro area bonds are expensive. To cease being expensive, the yield spread between the euro area and U.S. long bond needs to compress from -135 bps to…

Highlights Should the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield approach 3% it would be a red flag, and a trigger to downgrade equities. Equity investors should stay overweight defensive-heavy Switzerland and Denmark. Contrary to what the consensus…

Highlights For the time being, our cyclical stance is to underweight the globally-sensitive Energy, Materials and Banks sectors versus Healthcare - in both the equity and credit asset-class. Combined with our expectation of a…

We test three channels of contagion from the Brexit shock: political, banking system, and economic.

The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.