Developed Countries
European assets are selling off as investors panic about the upcoming French election. Is this panic justified, and if so, for how long?
In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.
The BoE had to deal with a stagflationary headache in the second half of 2023. Inflation was stickier and growth was weaker in the UK than in many of its DM peers. This trend turned around earlier this year with a late-cycle growth reacceleration. The UK…
The preliminary University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped in June to 65.6 from 69.1, against expectations of improving morale. Consumers’ assessments of current conditions declined by a larger margin than expectations for the…
In a largely expected move, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0-0.1% in June. It maintained the pace of bond buying at JPY 6tr per month but signaled it would lay out a plan to reduce its balance sheet next month, without offering any…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, aggressive fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility contributed to the relative strength of the US consumer. However, adverse region-specific effects also played a role. Most notably, the…
The NFIB Small Business survey surprised to the upside in May, suggesting improved optimism among small business owners. Most notably, an increasing share of respondents is planning on hiring workers, and the jobs opening series has ticked meaningfully…
Goods prices have been normalizing following the pandemic binge on goods spending. The May CPI release indicated that durable goods and nondurable goods prices both continued to contract. Investors and policymakers have thus turned their attention to other…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, job losers not on temporary layoff (‘bad’ unemployment) will need to rise further for the Fed to reach its 2 percent inflation target. Although prime-age participation has surged, the participation of older…
We continue to expect a recession by early 2025 but assign non-trivial odds to growth surprising to the upside until then. Our Global Investment Strategy team thus recommends investors adopt a barbell equity strategy as a hedge for the second half of 2024,…