US job openings softened from 8.5 million in March to 8.1 million in April, below expectations of 8.4 million, and the lowest level in three years. Healthcare and social assistance, as well as leisure and hospitality, drove the…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the downside in May, coming in at 100.3 from 101.9, below expectation of an acceleration to 102.1. Switzerland’s economy is…
The ISM manufacturing PMI declined further in May, from 49.2 to 48.7, thus disappointing expectations of a slower pace of deterioration. Similar to dynamics observed with their Chinese counterparts (see Country Focus), both US…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2024.
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
Generative AI-related rally resumed in May. Much of the recent market gains are down to excess liquidity that was begotten by the massive pandemic stimulus, creating a dichotomy between multiple economic challenges and exuberant…
In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.
MacroQuant sees significant downside risks to stocks over a 1-to-3 month horizon and suggests increasing allocation to long-term bonds. The model favours defensive equity sectors but is also hedging its bets by overweighting…
Euro Area CPI accelerated for the first time this year from 2.4% y/y to a faster-than-expected 2.6% y/y in May. Preliminary estimates also suggest that core CPI accelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.9% y/y, against expectations of a…