Developed Countries
June’s strong Canadian jobs data does not argue against further easing and a CGBs overweight. Employment rose by 83.1k versus expectations for no growth, the first increase since January. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.0%. However, gains were…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
Rising continuing claims and slowing hiring momentum reinforce our defensive allocation stance. Continuing claims have reached a post-COVID high of 1.965m, while initial claims eased to 227k after peaking at 250k. The divergence between steadily rising…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.
Real yields remain near 2%, but structural asymmetries justify a duration overweight as inflation expectations stay anchored. US 10-year yields have been volatile, testing 4.80% in January and dropping below 4.0% after April’s Liberation Day. Meanwhile,…
Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0 and expectations modestly…
The RBA’s surprise hold reinforces a slower easing path, warranting an underweight on Australian bonds. Markets had priced in a 25 bps cut, but the central bank opted to keep rates at 3.85%. Governor Bullock characterized the decision as a matter of timing,…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and regional exposure drive…
Markets are pricing a return to a neutral policy stance for the major central banks within the next 12 months. However, recession risks still loom amid slowing growth. We unpack where recession risks are underappreciated and what it means for bond positioning.
Deteriorating macro momentum supports a defensive asset allocation stance as hard data deteriorates. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs confirmed that growth is slowing and price pressures are easing from a high level. The ISM Manufacturing index…