Canada’s headline CPI inflation decelerated in April from 2.9% y/y to 2.7% y/y. Notably, core median CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to a softer-than-anticipated 2.6% y/y and core trimmed-mean CPI ticked lower from 3.2% to 2.9…
The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…
Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the BoC should have sufficient evidence of Canadian disinflation to cut rates this summer. The market is pricing in a similar amount of rate cuts for the BoC…
An adverse shock is not a recession prerequisite. The empirical record shows that the US economy regularly evolves its way into a contraction with little fanfare. If current cooling trends continue, we project a recession will…
The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m. Deteriorating consumer sentiment and manufacturing new orders led the overall decline. Contractions in…
We dig into the USD-denominated Emerging Market Sovereign Index to see which credit tiers and countries offer value relative to US Credit.
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, among the commodity groups, industrial metals provide the most reliable leading signal that the US economy is heading toward recession. Industrial metals…
Credit spreads continue to price in a Goldilocks scenario. US investment grade and high-yield OAS have tightened 41 and 137 bps from their October peaks, resulting in handsome outperformance by both sectors relative to duration-…
US industrial production stalled in April against expectations of a moderate pace of growth (0.1% m/m) and March’s growth rate was revised lower from 0.4% m/m to 0.1% m/m. Notably, pro-cyclical manufacturing production…