The broad market took a significant step backward in April, as market jitters gripped investors, stoking fears of higher for longer monetary policy. However, our roundtable investor poll has demonstrated that the majority remain…
The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a…
The Federal Reserve has a target inflation of 2%. But what level of inflation does the American public actually prefer? A recent NBER paper titled “Inflation Preferences” by Afrouzi, Dietrich, Myrseth, Priftis, and…
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in April. The headline index fell to 49.4 from 51.4, below expectations of a faster pace of growth. April’s contraction ends a streak of 15 consecutive months of services-sector…
Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m in March and came in below expectations. On a year-on-year basis, they decelerated from 4.1% to 3.9%, the lowest since June 2021 and below expectations of 4…
Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, US and Euro Area growth will likely converge in the next 12 months. Fiscal policy differences were the most visible headwind to Eurozone growth last…
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged following its May FOMC meeting. It also announced it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening starting on June 1, from the current $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month for…
The preliminary nonfarm labor productivity estimate increased by an annualized 0.3% in Q1, below both the previous quarter’s 3.5% rate and expectations of 0.5%. Meanwhile unit labor costs increased by 4.7% annualized in Q1…