According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, a hard landing is the only way to solve the UK inflation problem. Sticky inflation and lingering inflation pressures have made the BoE’s job much…
The Canadian dollar typically has two main drivers: interest rate differentials and commodity prices, especially oil prices. However, the relationship between the CAD and oil has broken down recently. As our FX strategists have…
The Tokyo inflation release for April came in on the soft side on Friday, with every single metric coming in below expectations. Tokyo headline inflation declined from 2.6% y/y to 1.8% y/y, versus expectations of a much more…
Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure report for March showed headline and core PCE inflation both came in at 0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. Meanwhile the increase in annual headline PCE number from 2.5% y/y to…
Our latest views on the recent increase in Treasury yields and some key things to watch at next week’s FOMC meeting.
Equity markets reacted negatively to the preliminary Q1 US GDP on Thursday, with the S&P 500 shedding 0.5%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps in response to the stronger-than-expected core PCE inflation print…
Throughout this cycle, US housing has defied expectations. Overall home prices have never fallen since the pandemic, even as the Fed has conducted its second most aggressive tightening campaign in history. Today, home price…
The advanced estimates for US real GDP suggest that economic growth slowed meaningfully from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.6% in Q1 2024 on an annualized basis, significantly below expectations of 2.5%. That said, the details of the…
USD/JPY has appreciated by over 10% so far in 2024, making the yen the worst performing G10 currency year-to-date. This cross has also surpassed the 150 threshold which historically is the level at which the Bank of Japan begins…