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Developed Countries

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Looking Beyond The Labor Market Headlines

We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor market is softening, but very slowly, and offers no indications that a recession is at hand.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Rangebound Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q1/24 Review & Outlook: Growth Shock

In this report, we present our quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. The anti-growth bias of the portfolio allocations hurt the portfolio performance in Q1/2024 as global growth surprised to the upside. However, we anticipate some recovery of the underperformance in our base case scenario for the next six months.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri
US Initial Claims Fall Below Expectations
US Initial jobless claims declined from 222 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending April 5, below expectations of a less pronounced decrease to 215 thousand. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the number increased to 214 thousand. This initial claims…
Daily Insights
Carry Trades Point To A Global Growth Recovery
The total return of a carry strategy that is long high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the South African rand and short a funding currency like the Japanese yen is pointing to a recovery in global growth. Carry trades distribute liquidity…
Daily Insights
EM Small Caps Bucking the Trend
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
Daily Insights
The Mel Rule Suggests A US Recession Is Baked In The Cake
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, a comprehensive review of leading US labor market indicators reveals that most are now flashing red. This includes the “Mel rule,” a refinement of the better known but less timely Sahm rule. …
Daily Insights
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The ECB Signals A June Rate Cut

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Headline PPI Softer Than Expected
Thursday’s US Produce Price Index report for March shows headline PPI came in below expectations on both a month-over-month (0.2%) and annual (2.1%) basis. Meanwhile, PPI ex food and energy came in at 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations), and 2.4% y/y(above…
Daily Insights
ECB: Mark Your Calendar For June
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were absorbing the rise in labor costs…
Daily Insights

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