BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service is watching households, the labor market and consumer credit for signs of a business cycle inflection and the all-clear signal to underweight equities. Equity bear markets…
The Dallas Fed released its trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for February on Friday. The trimmed mean PCE is a measure of underlying inflation which excludes the top 31% and the bottom 25% of the PCE basket and then uses a weighted…
The number of job openings in the US in February (8.76 million) was little changed from the downwardly revised 8.75 million in January, keeping the job openings rate stable at 5.3%. Similarly, the hiring rate was little changed…
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in March, better than expectations of 48.4 and breaking above the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since September 2022. Notably the new orders component rebounded to 51.4, marking…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.
The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should favor Italian BTPs over Euro Area IG until there is a better entry point to add exposure to BTP-bund spreads. The team’s latest…
The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of this year on Monday. While there are some early signs of stabilization, overall demand continues to be weak. The indicator for future sales growth…
Friday’s PCE report showed a resilient US economy. Real personal consumption increased by 0.4% m/m in February, beating expectations of 0.1% m/m and remaining above its pre-pandemic trend. Both services and goods…
We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.