The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.
In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.
MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a negative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s agenda is structurally inflationary and would eventually be needed to be discounted by markets, if he wins. Most retail investors – and many…
The message from Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech on Wednesday could not be clearer: there’s still no rush. While market participants as well as the FOMC are still pricing in three rate cuts this year, the…
At 3.9% in February, the unemployment rate remains quite low in the US, corroborating the signal from GDP that current economic conditions are fine. Similarly, the Sahm Rule – which currently stands at 0.3 pp – has…
The US economy expanded at a faster pace than previously believed in 2023Q4. GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% q/q rate, thus annulling the second estimate’s downward revision. Notably, consumption growth was revised even…
Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election…
We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.