Developed Countries
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Tactical SEK Bearishness Backed By Dovish Riksbank
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ZEW expectations jumped in May, but underlying macro fragility supports a cautious stance on eurozone assets. The ZEW expectations index for the euro area rose to 35.3 from 11.6, with Germany also beating expectations. The current situation component improved…
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US Retail Worries
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BoJ: A Balanced Pause
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The Swiss Illusion: Strong Fundamentals, Weak Momentum
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Worsening manufacturing data reinforces our defensive stance as expectations rebound but observed activity continues to deteriorate. The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to -16.0 from -9.2, well below estimates. Expectations rebounded, but the…
Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.
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Consumer Sentiment Rebounds, But Fed Still Trapped by Sticky Expectations
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How Tight Is The Labor Market?
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The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued, signaling limited demand for…