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Developed Countries

Riksbank Will Be Among The First To Cut Rates
The Swedish krona was among the weakest G10 currencies on Wednesday following the Riksbank meeting. Although the central bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged as expected, the post-meeting communication was on the dovish side. The press release noted that…
Daily Insights
Will US Small Caps Finally Have Their Moment?
In an Insight we published yesterday, we highlighted that the S&P 500 rally has recently stopped narrowing with the gap between the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices stabilizing over the past month. This has also coincided with a…
Daily Insights
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The Big Story: The US Economy Is ‘Inverted’

For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Consumers Are Pessimistic About The Future
The Conference Board’s gauge of US consumer confidence came in at 104.7 in March – broadly unchanged from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February and below expectations of an improvement to 107. The Expectations Index deteriorated from 76.3 to 73.8, while…
Daily Insights
Has US Wage Disinflation Stalled?
In Fed chair Jay Powell’s opening remarks at last week’s press conference, he noted that wage growth has been moderating and that FOMC participants expect a continued rebalancing of the labor market to help ease price pressures further. Indeed, various gauges…
Daily Insights
US Durable Goods Orders Rebound In February
US durable goods orders delivered a positive signal for the business spending outlook.  The 1.4% increase in new orders for durable goods in February marks the first expansion in three months and beat expectations of a 1.0% rise. Increases in new orders…
Daily Insights
Broadening Out?
The US equity rally has recently stopped narrowing with the gap between the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices for the S&P 500 stabilizing over the past month. Indeed, this has coincided with a shift in market leadership. Energy, Materials,…
Daily Insights
On A Knife-Edge
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the wave of inflation that the US experienced over the past three years cannot be safely repeated. The unemployment rate is a highly mean-reverting series: When it gets down to very low…
Daily Insights
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Second Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Balancing Act

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Chatting With A Chatbot: A Year Later (Part II)

GAI is a powerful force that will revolutionize the global economy and we are sold on this long-term investment theme. To partake in the upward momentum, we recommend a nuanced approach. The GAI infrastructure cohort is now overbought - there should be a better entry point. The models and applications companies and early adopters are less of a crowded trade and offer more opportunities.

US Equity Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics