There is a general consensus among BCA Research strategists that a US recession is highly likely over the next two years. While last month our Global Investment strategists reduced the probability that a recession will…
The latest MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications rose 7.1% in the week ending March 8 on the back of a 4.7% increase in purchases and a 12.2% rise in refinancing, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. Higher…
The Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator remains at an elevated 0.154 versus its recession event horizon of 0.200, indicating weakening US labour demand. With the last mile of US disinflation requiring labour demand to ‘catch…
The British pound is the best performing G10 currency so far this year, gaining 0.7% vis-à-vis the US dollar. The outperformance of sterling over the past month coincides with an increase in Citigroup’s UK economic…
Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are…
US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2024.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, last week’s ECB meeting confirmed their long-held view that the most likely date for the first ECB rate cut would be June. The ECB continues to…
Japanese equities and government bonds sold off on Monday and the yen strengthened following the release of the revised Q4 GDP report showing the economy expanded by an annualized 0.4% q/q in Q4 2023 versus earlier estimates of a…