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Developed Countries

S&P 500: A Look Beneath The Surface Of Fresh Record Highs
S&P 500: A Look Beneath The Surface Of Fresh Record Highs …
Daily Insights
Why US Economic Feelgood Is Not Good
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, ‘bad unemployment’ is on the rise in the US, despite resilient growth. There are two ways that you can become unemployed. Either by losing your job. Or by entering the labour force to look for a job. The…
Daily Insights
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The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator Stays Elevated, But Untriggered

The Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator remains at an elevated 0.154 versus its recession event horizon of 0.200, indicating weakening US labour demand. With the last mile of US disinflation requiring labour demand to ‘catch down’ with labour supply, investors should watch the Joshi rule very closely to pre-empt a potential tipping-point. Plus: tactically long Portugal versus Europe, and wheat versus cotton; and tactically short USD/CLP, Qualcomm (QCOM), and Salesforce (CRM).

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Another Hotter-Than-Anticipated US Inflation Report
US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in the headline index unexpectedly…
Daily Insights
Inflation Is Once Again Top Problem For Small Business Owners
Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are less optimistic. The results…
Daily Insights
Will The Pound Continue Outperforming?
The British pound is the best performing G10 currency so far this year, gaining 0.7% vis-à-vis the US dollar. The outperformance of sterling over the past month coincides with an increase in Citigroup’s UK economic surprise index, both on an absolute basis as…
Daily Insights
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Take Profits On Inflation Hedges

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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The Golden Rule Of Investing In UK Linkers

In this Special Report, we introduce our UK Linkers Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in UK inflation-linked bonds versus nominal UK gilts. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal Gilts should outperform UK linkers over the next year as UK inflation slows.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Long-Term US Consumer Inflation Expectations Tick Up
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed an uptick in medium- and long-term inflation expectations in February. Specifically, the three-year ahead measure rebounded from a record low of 2.4% to 2.7% and the five-year ahead gauge…
Daily Insights
US Unemployment Rate Climbs To 2-Year High
The US employment situation report sent a mixed signal on Friday. While total nonfarm payrolls rose by 275 thousand jobs in February, exceeding the 200 thousand expected, the previous two months’ numbers were revised lower by 167 thousand jobs (see Indicator…
Daily Insights

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