Tokyo CPI surprised to the upside in April, signaling that Japanese inflation shows no sign of deceleration and putting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a complicated position. Investors should remain maximum underweight in JGBs and…
The outperformance of European small caps is coming to an end. Our Chart Of The Week comes from our European Investment Strategy team.The team identifies several headwinds for small caps in Europe in the near term. Small caps’…
May PMIs confirm the improvement in confidence due to fewer concerns about US tariffs. Manufacturing flash PMI numbers showed resilience. The services activity PMI is more of a mixed bag.The US composite index beat estimates,…
European corporate bond spreads have more room to narrow in the near term, but their next big leg is up. After a significant widening in option-adjusted spreads caused by stagflation fears in the US and “Liberation Day,”…
Business sentiment improved slightly in May, corroborating the message from other soft-data indicators of Eurozone business activity, which remain weak but are not plummeting. The increase in the future expectations index to 88.…
Right now, the major stock and bond markets are more ‘anti-fragile’ than fragile, and the Joshi rule recession indicators signal that a US recession is not imminent. This justifies a neutral, or default, tactical weighting to both…
Swiss National Bank will have to resort to negative interest rates and FX intervention before year-end. Swiss inflation fell to 0% year-over-year in April, or the lower end of the SNB’s 0%-2% target range, and the continued…
UK inflation surprised to the upside in April. Headline inflation rose to a 15-month high of 3.5%, from 2.6% the month before. Core inflation also surprised above estimates, printing 3.8% vs. 3.4% in March. Services inflation climbed…
Uranium spot prices may have found a floor after falling to $64/lb from a $107/lb peak in February last year. This drawdown has been unexpected considering the strength of the underlying supply-demand fundamentals for uranium.…
Japan’s export growth slowed materially in April as shipments to the US, Japan’s largest export destination, fell 1.8% from a year earlier. Japan has yet to make a trade deal with the US. Japanese export growth slowed to 2% from…