Though there are some positive signals recently for the Democrats, it is still hard for them to close the gap and turn things around. The Republicans are still favored to win the Senate as well as the House in the upcoming election…
The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.
Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, investors should take care not to read too much into the recent easing in financial conditions. According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (…
In a recent Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists update their long-term fair-value models for the real effective exchange rate. The model aims to capture deviations from the long-term drivers of a currency,…
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were…
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points…
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course…
Nvidia’s blowout Q4 2023 earnings results and bullish guidance catalyzed a rally in global stocks that pushed the S&P 500, Europe’s Stoxx 600, and Japanese Nikkei to record highs on Thursday. The S&P 500 is…