Could a second wave of global inflation be underway? The latest inflation prints in the US and UK showed upside surprises, while there is evidence of increased price pressures in global manufacturing. Combined with the improvements…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, although the next recession is likely to be mild-to-moderate, the ensuing financial avalanche will be more severe. Valuations are highly stretched and hopes…
Energy security is a focus of many governments, especially since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One producer that is benefitting from diversification away from Russian oil and gas is Norway. This is buffeting the trade…
The Global Manufacturing PMI clocked in at 50 in January – exactly on the boom-bust line. The index has been on a general uptrend since mid-2023 with the January figure marking the first non-contractionary reading since…
According to the latest figures from FactSet, 59 of the 85 S&P 500 companies that have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2024 have guided lower. At 69%, the share of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is above both the 5-year…
The hotter-than-anticipated US PPI report for January prompted a selloff in Treasuries on Friday. The monthly and annual changes in both the headline as well as the core measures of final demand PPI came in above expectations.…
In this Insight, we speculate on the outlook for the CHF.
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the diminishing pace of disinflation in the US could pose a threat to US share prices in the near term. In the medium term, the key risk to US share prices is…
Our Commodity & Energy colleagues see oil markets balanced in the short run, which keeps their Brent price forecasts at $95/bbl and $105/bbl for 2024 and 2025. That said, they note the odds are increasing demand…
The first two regional fed manufacturing surveys for February delivered strong upside surprises. The New York Fed’s Empire Index surged from -43.7 to -2.4, unwinding its January slump. Similarly, the Philly Fed current…