The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts…
We highlighted in a recent Insight that positive economic surprises are prompting economists to revise up their US economic growth expectations. The Goldilocks narrative is supporting the rally in risk assets. However, results of…
The US CPI report for January showed inflation did not cool as much as anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.23% to 0.31% on a month-over-month basis, higher than anticipations of 0.2% m/m. It fell from 3.4% to 3.1%…
The Chinese economy continues to face deflationary pressures, reducing the odds that any intervention-driven rebound in equities will be sustained. In addition, our Geopolitical strategists have argued that US-China relations…
Expectations that the Fed will successfully deliver a soft landing for the US economy remains the dominant narrative. Since August, economists have been revising up their 2024 US GDP forecasts with the consensus now anticipating…
Results of the US Conference Board’s latest quarterly survey show an improvement in sentiment among business leaders. The CEO Confidence measure rose above 50 for the first time in two years – indicating that…
We created a sector selection scorecard based on performance of sectors under various macroeconomic regimes while taking into consideration revisions to expected earnings growth and valuations in a historical context. Our total…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates…
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be…