Over the past few months we have been highlighting that there are some budding signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity. Most notably, the new orders-to-inventories ratio of Sweden’s manufacturing PMI has been…
The latest Canadian data suggest that although demand is cooling down, the Canadian economy is not in freefall. The unemployment rate fell for the first time since December 2022, declining by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7%,…
This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.
The dominance of large tech companies in the S&P 500 has caused concern amongst investors. The Magnificent Seven now represent 30% of the index. These companies have more than doubled in value over the past year, in contrast…
Last Friday’s blockbuster US employment report is among the recent data releases that have focused investors’ attention on the possibility that resilient economic conditions will reduce the magnitude of Fed easing…
After having surged in the second half of 2021 and early 2022, the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker peaked in mid-2022 and has since been on a general downtrend. The latest reading of 5.0% in January is a continuation of…
US equities remain on a winning streak. After a sluggish start to the year, US stocks resumed their rally in late-January. Importantly, the rally has recently broadened out, with nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rising so far…
According to the latest MBA weekly survey, mortgage applications increased 3.7% in the week ending February 2. The contents of the report were mixed. A 12.3% jump in the refinance index drove the increase while mortgage…
The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in…
Banks were thrust back in the spotlight’s unflattering glare last week when mid-cap regional New York Community Bank shocked analysts and shareholders with an enormous credit loss. According to BCA Research’s US…