Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central…
As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday – maintaining policy on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25bps rise (one…
In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.
When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.
The US DoD rolled out its first-ever industrial policy designed to reverse decades of atrophy in its military-industrial complex. This left the US with diminished access to CMM commodities and supply chains, which are now dominated…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in…
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income…
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary…
The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest…
We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two…