Developed Countries
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Second Leg Risk Still in Play Despite TACO Trade Bounce
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Our Counterpoint Strategists see no signs of recession or market fragility but remain skeptical of US superstar stocks. Winners of past tech cycles rarely lead the next, making Web 2.0 firms unlikely beneficiaries of the AI-driven rally. BCA’s Counterpoint…
The May US jobs report reinforces our defensive stance as labor momentum is slowing even if not collapsing. Payrolls rose 139k, beating estimates, but decelerating from a downwardly revised 147k. Two-month revisions cut 95k jobs, again signaling that initial…
The May ISM Services PMI sent a stagflationary signal, reinforcing the case for defensive positioning. The headline index slipped into contraction at 49.9 from 51.6 in April, missing expectations. New orders collapsed to 46.4 from 52.3, while employment edged…
Canada’s Headwinds Push The BoC Toward Easing
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Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
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Ukraine, Tariffs, and TACO: Still Buying Europe on Dips
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Our European strategists expect the EURO STOXX 50 to remain rangebound between 4750 and 5500 this summer, creating a punishing environment for buy-and-hold investors. With the index near the top of its range, they recommend trimming outright exposure and…
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Weak ISM Manufacturing Data Underscores Slowdown Despite Trade Truce
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MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.