Investors have taken comfort in the fact that unemployment has remained low in the major economies. But underneath the surface, there are clear signs that labor demand is weakening. The clock keeps ticking towards our H2 2024…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service expects the Fed to slow the pace of QT starting at the May FOMC meeting, the same time that it starts cutting rates. QT will likely end altogether later in 2024 if the economy enters…
After having traded sideways for the past month, US equities ended the week on a high note with the S&P 500 closing at fresh record high on Friday. Last year’s winners are once again driving the rally. Information…
Inflation cooled for the second consecutive month in Japan with annual headline CPI inflation falling from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y in December. Underlying inflation gauges also cooled, with the December prints of core and “…
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers delivered a positive surprise on Friday. The headline index jumped from 69.7 to a 30-month high of 78.8, beating expectations of a slight increase…
An update to our outlooks for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies following this week’s remarks from Fed Governor Waller.
This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months.
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a lukewarm message on the US economy. Growth, employment, and prices were all relatively stable since the previous release in late-November. Eight districts reported little or no change…
Recent data suggest that the US housing market is resilient. In particular, a strong rebound in homebuilder sentiment is sending a positive signal. The NAHB Housing Market Index jumped from 37 to 44 in January – handily…
The 1mm b/d surge in US crude oil production last year was the result of a flood of low-cost drilled-but-uncompleted (DUCs) shale-oil wells coming online, mostly in 2H23 in the Permian Basin, which our colleagues in BCA's…